By Josh Huff

[email protected]

Three factors will determine the outcome come this Saturday when UK clashes with SEC rival LSU down in Death Valley: the battle between the lines, the winner of the turnover margin and UK receiver Ryan Timmons’ impact.

Running backs vs. defense

The most intriguing matchup will be between the play of LSU’s running back Leonard Fournette and UK linebacker Josh Forrest. Fournette is coming off an outstanding overall game in LSU’s 30-27 road win over Florida. The freshman rushed for 140 yards in route to 225 all-purpose yards. Staring him down will be UK’s leading tackler, Forrest, who leads the team with 40 tackles and is second on the team with five tackles for loss.

UK will need Forrest and the rest of the defense to show up down in Baton Rouge, La., if UK has any chance of pulling out a win. Two out of the three SEC teams UK has played (South Carolina and Florida) rushed for a combined 339 yards; a statistic that can’t be repeated with Fournette and Kenny Hilliard lining up in the backfield.

However, physicality at the point of attack will be the deciding factor this week and with a potent UK defense brisling with confidence look for the Cats to contain the efficient Tigers’ offense.

The Edge-Kentucky

Turnovers

In three SEC games, the Tigers have turned the ball over just once and have a +8 turnover margin, which is good for third in the SEC. UK is also +8 in the turnover margin and its defense is second in the SEC with 11 interceptions.

LSU’s quarterback Anthony Jennings has thrown only three interceptions this season and with the Tigers’ focus on the run game, Jennings will helm an efficient passing game that will likely play conservative against UK’s potent secondary.

UK, though, will have to rely on quarterback Patrick Towles to keep his hands on the football. His uncanny ability to simply drop the ball has put the Cats in some precarious predicaments this season but his mistake-free game against ULM is a positive sign that he has nixed that problem. His game manager moniker is rightly deserved. As he picks and chooses the right reads and if he continues to do so against LSU, the Cats will be in prime position to pull the upset.

The Edge-LSU

Timmons’ impact

Timmons is enjoying a year in which he has caught 27 passes for 315 yards and has become Towles’ go-to receiver. He has just two touchdowns on the season but both have come during UK’s last two SEC games.

Prediction

If the run game struggles to materialize for the Cats, which has been the case in the past few games, Towles and the passing game will need to step up. The Cats can only utilize the Wildcat so many times before teams start to catch on, so a solid ground game from Braylon Heard and Stanley “Boom” Williams is vital to UK’s success.

UK 24, LSU 28