Providence versus Kentucky: a breakdown by the numbers
Kentucky Wildcats guard Antonio Reeves (12) shoots the ball during a practice ahead of the first round of the NCAA Tournament on Thursday, March 16, 2023, at Greensboro Coliseum in Greensboro, North Carolina. Photo by Jack Weaver | Staff
March 17, 2023
Kentucky clinched a berth in the NCAA tournament on Sunday with a No. 6 in the east region of the bracket on Sunday.
Its opponent was determined as well, with the No. 11 Providence Friars being the team that will match up against the Cats with a trip to the round of 32 on the line.
Providence, a school from the Big East, is located in Rhode Island and is led by head coach Ed Cooley, formerly of UMass along with Kentucky head coach John Calipari.
The Friars are coming off an incredibly successful 2021-22 season, having won the regular season Big East title and making the Sweet Sixteen as a No. 4 seed before losing to eventual national champion Kansas.
The Friars are coming into this year’s tournament having lost three games in a row, which may seem like good news for Cats fans, however losing streaks have been proven to not truly matter in reflecting success in the NCAA tournament.
In fact, teams that come into the dance with a losing streak of two or more games have roughly a 60%-win percentage in the last 24 tournaments.
So, taking a closer look at this year’s No. 11 seeded Friars, how do they match up with Kentucky?
The first and perhaps most alarming thing for Kentucky fans is the Friars’ successful offense.
Kentucky was a disappointing 2-6 against teams with a top 30 offense in KenPom, a metric that tracks team’s offensive and defensive efficiency. Providence’s offense ranked as the No 16 offense in the country, the second highest of any double-digit seed.
The Friars’ highly efficient offense is led by former Wildcat Bryce Hopkins, who transferred to Providence at the end of last season. Hopkins is undoubtedly the star of the team, averaging 16 points per game and 8.5 rebounds per game, leading his team in both metrics.
What’s important to note about Providence, however, is its change in play lately compared to earlier in the season.
In the month of January, Providence’s opponents shot 43% from the field and 27% from beyond the arc. In February and March however, the Friars’ opponents shot 47% from the field and 37% from deep.
In that same stretch Providence’s offensive rating went from an already impressive 107.8 to 110.1.
It’s evident that Providence has gotten considerably worse defensively over the last two months, while also becoming more dominant on offense, an alarming figure for a Kentucky team that tends to thrive against defense-oriented teams.
This increase in variation between offense and defense is not a good sign for Providence either though, as the best performers in the “big dance” are typically the most balanced between offense and defense.
This is especially important for a team like Kentucky as its defense, while still not great, has been significantly better in the home stretch of the season.
It’s also worth noting that Providence is just 1-5 when being outrebounded by their opponent, which is a good sign for Kentucky, with reigning consensus National Player of the Year Oscar Tshiebwe and the Cats being one of the best rebounding squads in the country.
This, along with the Cats’ high-powered offense of their own, signifies a good chance for Kentucky to advance on to the next round and potentially face Kansas State with a trip to the Sweet Sixteen on the line.
Kentucky and Providence will tip-off on Friday at 7:10 PM, where the Wildcats will fight for their first NCAA Tournament win since 2019.
