Scouting report: A look into Kentucky’s first weekend of the NCAA Tournament

March 21, 2024

Kentucky assistant coach Chin Coleman calls for a switch during the No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 7 Texas A&M men’s basketball match in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday, March 15, 2024, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. Kentucky lost 97-87. Photo by Samuel Colmar | Staff

Despite a disappointing end to the SEC Tournament, Kentucky fans were able to take solace in the fact that, without a doubt, the Wildcats were IN the NCAA Tournament.

With annoyance aimed toward head coach John Calipari following years of failure in March, expectations are high that Kentucky needs to get out of the first weekend for the first time since 2019.

In order to escape the first weekend, Kentucky will have to win two games in Pittsburgh against a possible three opponents. With that in mind, how does Kentucky stack up against its foes?

Kentucky guard Reed Sheppard (15) goes for a rebound during the No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 7 Texas A&M men’s basketball match in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday, March 15, 2024, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. Kentucky lost 97-87. Photo by Samuel Colmar | Staff (Samuel Colmar)

Kentucky Wildcats

The Cats earned a No. 3 seed in the “Big Dance,” something that saw many fans breathe a sigh of relief after some bracketologists had the Cats on the four line following their disappointing loss to Texas A&M — which did, in fact, also get into the field.

With the second best offense in all of college basketball, averaging 89.4 points per game, the Cats match up well offensively with anybody in the dance. The only team higher than Kentucky, Alabama, is across the bracket and the Cats already blew out the Crimson Tide this season.

The problem arises on the other side of the ball, with Kentucky clocking in at 108 in defensive efficiency per KenPom, an advanced statistics website. Against a team that can suppress the Cats on offense, Kentucky may run into trouble.

Oakland Golden Grizzlies

Kentucky’s first round opponent is the No. 14 seeded Oakland Golden Grizzlies from Michigan.

The Golden Grizzlies finished the 2023-24 season 23-11 on the year and won an automatic bid to the NCAA Tournament by way of winning the Horizon League Tournament.

Oakland has notable wins on its resume, including over Xavier and Marshall, but also has some rough losses as well including Green Bay. To its credit, it also played close in losses against Ohio State, No. 3 Illinois and No. 10 Drake.

The Golden Grizzlies are led in scoring by junior Trey Townsend, who averages 16.9 points per game after spending his whole career in Oakland.

Per KenPom, the Golden Grizzlies rank No. 137 overall and are No.135 on offense and No.165 on defense.

Barring a Saint Peter’s situation, Kentucky has all the tools to beat the Golden Grizzlies, but Oakland could also be deceptively tough as a first round opponent.

Texas Tech Red Raiders

Kentucky head coach John Calipari, left, pleads with guard Rob Dillingham (0) as he walks to the bench during the No. 2 Kentucky vs. No. 7 Texas A&M men’s basketball game in the SEC Tournament quarterfinals on Friday, March 15, 2024, at Bridgestone Arena in Nashville, Tennessee. Kentucky lost 97-87. Photo by Samuel Colmar | Staff (Samuel Colmar)

Assuming the Cats beat Oakland, they’ll face one of two opponents in the second round.

The first candidate is probably the tougher of the two: No. 6 Texas Tech.

KenPom has the Red Raiders No. 24 overall, just five spots behind Kentucky, with the No. 23 offense in the country and the No. 45 defense, a tough opponent for Kentucky in the first weekend.

The Red Raiders received an at-large bid out of the Big 12 after falling to No. 1 Houston. Throughout the season TTU has beaten No. 7 Texas, No. 6 BYU twice, No. 4 Kansas, No. 9 TCU and No. 3 Baylor, proving its more than capable of winning big games.

Losses outside of the NCAA Tournament include Villanova, Butler, Cincinnati and UCF, none of which could truly be described as bad losses as all four were in or around the tournament conversation at one point this season.

The Red Raiders are led in scoring by sophomore Pop Isaacs and senior Joe Toussaint — an Iowa transfer — who combine for 28 points per game.

If Kentucky is going to escape the first weekend, the Red Raiders are certainly the biggest hurdle standing in its way.

NC State Wolfpack

The final candidate for the first weekend, and Texas Tech’s first round opponent, is No. 11 NC State.

The Wolfpack qualified for the dance as a “bid thief,” having been firmly out of the NCAA Tournament conversation before erupting to win five games in five days and clinch the ACC Tournament Championship.

The Wolfpack certainly had notable wins, including over No. 10 Virginia, No. 6 Clemson, but found its groove in the ACC Tournament, knocking out Louisville, Syracuse, No. 4 Duke, Virginia again and No. 1 North Carolina en route to the dance.

Outside of conference play, NC State didn’t take true bad losses, but it struggled in the ACC, going 9-11 with losses to multiple non-tournament teams.

Per KenPom, NC State is No. 58 with the No. 47 offense and No. 89 defense. It is led in scoring by senior DJ Horne — a former teammate of Antonio Reeves at Illinois State — and DJ Burns Jr. with the pair combining for 29.3 points per game.

Kentucky matches up better with NC State than Texas Tech, but the Wolfpack will enter the dance red hot and could prove to be a tough opponent nonetheless.

UK versus Oakland is scheduled to take place on Thursday, March 21, at 7:10 p.m. ET on CBS.