SEC Preview

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The UK men’s basketball team celebrates UK’s SEC championship win over Mississippi State Bridgestone Arena in the SEC Finals on Sunday, March 14, 2010. Photo by Britney McIntosh

Following UK’s win over Louisville Jan. 31, Rick Pitino talked in the press conference about how the Cardinals’ loss couldn’t linger because of the daunting Big East schedule they would be facing. He then proceeded to offer his perspective on the SEC, complete with a disclaimer to start things off.

“I don’t say this in a negative way,” Pitino started, “but they are going to get better and better in a conference that is down this year.”

The numbers tend to confirm Pitino’s thought that the SEC is down. Ken Pomeroy’s ratings have the SEC as the sixth-best conference, the lowest among major power conferences. A list of non-conference losses suffered by SEC teams so far this year: Saint Peter’s, Furman, Samford, Campbell, Jacksonville, UNC Asheville, North Texas, Oakland, and Nicholls State.

But UK head coach John Calipari noted that the SEC East is formidable, and UK has to play those teams twice.

“I’ll tell you all this,” Calipari said. “We are playing on our half, the Eastern half. Our 10 games in the Eastern half, I’ll put up against any other leagues that they are playing their teams when they are not playing doubles. They are not playing teams twice; they are playing them once.”

UK’s strength of schedule, which is anywhere in the 15-25 range depending on who is ranking, could remain about the same because of playing the SEC East twice.

“So our 16 games, we have got 10 of them on are on this (Eastern) half,” Calipari said. “Think about that. Our strength of schedule at the end the year will stay in the Top 15 or 20. Maybe higher. On a team that’s this young, all freshman and inexperienced? Yeah. Yeah. It will be a tough road for us.”

So, exactly what kind of road lies ahead? Well, almost every national thing associated with breaking down college hoops agrees that UK is the clear favorite in the SEC East, and four other teams (of which nobody can figure out) are fighting for second. And the SEC West sucks all the way around. But that clearly won’t do, so let’s take a more in-depth look at the teams.

SEC EAST

1. Kentucky — 12-2, No. 10/11 in voter’s polls, No. 7 RPI, No. 5 Pomeroy, No. 4 Sagarin

This team is young, inexperienced, but talented. A relatively tough non-conference slate — and no head-scratching losses — makes UK a more confident pick to win the SEC. Josh Harrellson’s emerging play in the middle and the freshmen playing up to their potential have enabled the Cats’ success so far. In terms of March, a couple national writers feel UK has a better shot at making the Final Four than last year’s team, which had five first-rounders but shot their way out of an Elite Eight win against West Virginia.

From Seth Davis: “It’s ironic that this team is both younger and less talented than last year’s, yet it appears to be more mature, efficient, poised and therefore more capable of reaching the Final Four.”

From Gary Parrish: Parrish listed three traits that defined UK and provided optimism — they’re athletic, they can guard, and they can shoot. He liked the last one the best. “So is this the type of team that’s going to miss 88 percent of its 3-point attempts in an important game? No, I don’t think it is. And that’s why it might be wise to call the Wildcats the SEC favorite and add them to the list of serious Final Four candidates.”

2. Vanderbilt — 11-2, No. 22/24 in voter’s polls, No. 15 RPI, No. 9 Pomeroy, No. 14 Sagarin

Both losses were close games, and Vanderbilt has emerged as the most likely team to pose a threat to UK. ESPN’s Dana O’Neill said that “Vanderbilt has been steady all season, which is not something you can say about their peers in the SEC.”

From Seth Davis: “The Commodores are smart enough not to lose to teams they should beat, but are they talented enough to consistently beat teams they shouldn’t? Not sure. I think Festus Ezeli is giving Vandy a toughness and defensive presence it has lacked in the past, but the league will not give them many opportunities for real eyebrow-raising wins.”

3. Florida — 11-3, No. 8 RPI, No. 29 Pomeroy, No. 22 Sagarin

Florida started the season ranked in the top 10 and dropped out of the rankings after stumbling against Central Florida and Jacksonville. A team that returned five starters had lost their way in non-conference, but lately they appear ready to reclaim a spot in the rankings. Central Florida, led by Michael Jordan’s son, is still undefeated, negating the impact of that loss. The Jacksonville loss was still bad, but beating Kansas State and ending Xavier’s 30-game home winning streak offer signs Florida could contend for the SEC title they were tabbed to win in the preseason.

4. Tennessee — 9-4, No. 21 RPI, No. 54 Pomeroy, No. 60 Sagarin

What a confusing team to figure out. They rose to the occasion in beating top-10 Big East teams Villanova and Pittsburgh, and laid a beatdown on ranked rival Memphis. They also lost to the four teams mentioned above — and three came in a row, which is even more perplexing considering most would define one loss to any of those teams as a “wake-up call.” Now, head coach Bruce Pearl has to sit out the first eight SEC games (Tennessee doesn’t play UK until Pearl’s first game back). It doesn’t appear they are consistent enough to challenge, especially given the absence of their head coach, but they can obviously pull off big wins. They do that early enough, and the Volunteers might make a run. ESPN analyst Jimmy Dykes, after seeing Tennessee tear apart Memphis, said: “Tennessee clearly has the deepest team in the Southeastern Conference. If they’re now the most mature, they should win it.”

5. Georgia — 11-2, No. 60 RPI, No. 76 Pomeroy, No. 65 Sagarin

Their results so far aren’t bad. Georgia took Notre Dame to double overtime and Temple was ranked when they played. While Georgia has taken care of business against weaker teams, they haven’t had a signature win yet. Playing UK Saturday will be a big one. Calipari has mentioned multiple times it will be a sell-out and their “Super Bowl” game. Georgia was a sleeper pick to begin the year, but whether they can match their potential remains to be seen.

6. South Carolina — 8-4, No. 137 RPI, No. 101 Pomeroy, No. 96 Sagarin

Gone is Devan Downey, who almost single-handedly delivered the first defeat of the year to UK last season. Stepping into his place is … not much. The Gamecocks have one player averaging double-digit points, and they suffered both blowouts to good teams and losses to bad teams. If they upset UK, or end up finishing more than second-to-last in the East, it would be an achievement. UK Student Government, now is the time to pile it on if you were to rekindle the letter rivalry.