Indiana shocked the world with its incredible perfect season. Curt Cignetti, who was hired just two years ago, did a 180-degree change with the program.
For decades, Indiana had been viewed as a basketball school and one of the bottom football programs in the Big Ten, a team that struggled to compete and had not won a bowl game since 1991.
In his first season, Cignetti led Indiana to an 11-2 record out of nowhere and a surprise appearance in the College Football Playoff. Plenty of the media called this season flawed because of Indiana’s schedule.
Instead of regressing the following year, the Hoosiers took an even bigger leap.
Indiana went a perfect 16-0, captured the national championship, and completed one of the most remarkable turnarounds in college football history.
What Cignetti accomplished was historic, but it has also created a major problem across the sport, the unrealistic expectations for new head coaches.
One of the coaches now facing those expectations is Kentucky’s Will Stein.
Stein was a very popular hire among Kentucky fans. Many viewed him as a fresh, exciting offensive mind capable of making the Wildcats an offensive powerhouse.
Coming from Oregon, Stein built a reputation for an explosive, fast-paced offense and fans were eager to see that style brought to Kentucky, which has struggled on that side of the ball the past few seasons.
So far, Stein has wasted little time reshaping the roster. He has been extremely active in the transfer portal, adding key pieces to the offense.
Kentucky flipped quarterback Kenny Minchey, a Notre Dame transfer who had previously committed to Nebraska. Stein also added former five-star running back CJ Baxter and made significant improvements along the offensive line.
Because of these moves, Kentucky currently owns the No. 9 transfer class in the nation, according to 247Sports.
On paper, momentum is building. However, expectations have grown just as quickly, and that is where the problem begins.
Due to Cignetti’s immediate success at Indiana, many fans and media members now believe rapid turnarounds should be normal.
CBS Sports writer Cody Nagel even published an article discussing which program could become “Who could be the next Indiana?”, naming Kentucky as one of the possible teams.
While that comparison is flattering, it ignores how rare Indiana’s rise truly was.
Most people consider the SEC and the Big Ten to be the two conferences that run college football.
If immediate success were truly expected, then first-year head coaches in those leagues would consistently win right away. The data shows the opposite.
Across the Big Ten, current head coaches combined for a 113-108 record in their first seasons. The SEC numbers are even worse. Current SEC coaches went just 91-105 in their first year at their respective schools.
In total, only 38% of these first-year coaches have a winning record. That statistic alone proves how uncommon immediate success really is.
Kentucky fans also must consider the context of the schedule.
The Wildcats will play an even harder schedule than in past years, with the SEC adding another conference game and taking away one of the games against a smaller school.
Mark Stoops, widely considered one of the best coaches in program history, did not have a winning season until his fourth year. His early teams struggled, but he was given a chance and went on to have two 10-win seasons.
Cignetti’s run at Indiana was special, but it was also an outlier. It is not the standard for rebuilding a college football program.
Expecting Will Stein to build even close to a playoff-caliber team in Year one or two is not only unrealistic but also unfair.
College football rebuilds take time. Systems must be installed, players must be developed, recruiting pipelines must be built and culture must be established.
While Kentucky’s transfer success is encouraging, long-term success cannot be measured in a single season.
With this new excitement, fans need to give Stein time. What happened in Bloomington was an outlier and not the norm.
