After 15 months of brutal war in Gaza, it would seem that the ceasefire negotiations between Israeli officials and the leaders of Hamas have finally borne fruit.

A three-phase ceasefire process, beginning Jan. 20, involves the release of Israelis and Palestinians held by Hamas and Israeli authorities, respectively, and a deescalation of tensions.

However, it is a mistake to interpret this development as a resolution of any long-term conflict or even as an end to violence in the region. Underneath the exterior of this diplomacy lies troubling implications for Palestinians in Gaza as well as the West Bank.

Within the boundaries of the Gaza Strip, people can only take this ceasefire as a momentary relief from over a year of relentless violence. The bombs may have stopped falling for the moment, but now comes the process of taking stock of the damage.

They will return to homes that have been damaged or destroyed by Israeli bombing, sift through the rubble for what can be salvaged and, most disturbingly, find the remains of people killed. 

The official civilian death count, which sits at roughly 62,000 as of Feb. 3, 2025, will certainly climb in the coming weeks.

The ability of Gaza to recover from this catastrophe will depend, as it did before, on whether it will have access to the resources it will need to do so. The crossing between Rafah and Egypt will reopen, but Israel will control it and may seek to restrict the movement of people and goods in and out of Gaza arbitrarily as they have in the past.

It is also apparent that Israel may not be willing to commit to a cessation of hostilities. The details of the second and third phases are to be negotiated during the first, and Israel has refused to guarantee that it will not resume its attacks on the Strip after the first phase ends.

More than that, Israeli forces reportedly have not refrained from opening fire as they gradually withdraw. The Qatar-based news agency Al Jazeera reported that Israel has launched attacks on Palestinians returning to North Gaza, killing two and wounding several more.

Also relevant to the long-term situation in Gaza are the political forces at work in Israel and the United States. The far-right settler movement in Israel has pushed for the removal of Palestinians from Gaza, and President Donald Trump has suggested recently that he is sympathetic to their interests.

But Palestinians in Gaza are not the only ones under threat. There has been a recent escalation of violence in the West Bank where Israeli military forces have launched what they call “Operation Iron Wall,” and Israeli settlers have targeted the homes and property of Palestinians with the military’s protection.

Even as Israeli authorities and settlers have apparently violated international law, they have largely done so without consequence. Individual members and officials in the United Nations have condemned and criticized the actions of Israel and its citizens who act under its protection, but Israel’s allies—chiefly the U.S.—have mostly shielded them from any penalties.

For as long as I have been conscious of the plight of Palestinians, I have seen clearly that the impunity of Israel has been upheld by presidential administrations in the U.S. no matter which party the president belongs to. It is clear that that pattern is not likely to break.

Joe Biden’s administration was already remarkably permissive of Israel’s worst excesses. He oversaw multiple vetoes of United Nations Security Council resolutions calling for a ceasefire, continued sending military aid to Israel even after they crossed his supposed “red line” and allowed Benjamin Netanyahu to undermine negotiations for months.

Now, Trump has made him look like a completely ineffective diplomat by securing this fragile ceasefire deal within days of being involved in negotiations while also seeming poised to enable even more of Israel’s bad behavior.

Trump’s appointees to major cabinet and diplomatic positions have all expressed sympathy for Israel. Mike Huckabee has outright denied the existence of Palestinians as a people and culture, and Elise Stefanik has affirmed her belief that Israel has “a Biblical right” to claim all the land in historic Palestine.

Clearly, the troubles of Palestinians are not over. Beyond them, the rest of the world now has to reckon with the enormity of the destruction that Israel has been allowed to carry out without intervention from the institutions that supposedly exist to prevent such things.

Yet, I am inclined to hold onto some optimism. As Israeli forces have withdrawn from the Gaza Strip, people have returned to the homes they were driven away from and reunited with family and friends they had not seen in months. Humanitarian aid is finally reaching those who desperately need it.

If only for a moment, they do not have to fear imminent death. For all they have lost, they are still there and still alive.

The world owes it to them to make this relief last. Hopefully, in spite of everything, it will succeed.