Republicans work to hold on to political gains

 

 

The newly elected Congress has not even taken session yet, and already the Washington, D.C. chess match has begun.

Two weeks ago I wrote that Mitch McConnell would likely not barnstorm the Capitol with conservative legislation because it could backfire on the Republicans.

Despite a Republican landslide in the elections, most of President Obama’s policies remain popular across the country, though the economy is still in shambles for many Americans.

Tie that in with the fact that little has been done in D.C. in years, and voters want a change.

However, McConnell knows that the Republicans’ big wins were not a vote for Republicans as much as they were a vote against President Obama and his dreadful economic record.

He also knows that this election had the lowest voter turnout since World War II, and that many Democrats in the Senate had to defend seats in traditionally conservative states.

In 2016, the game will flip; it will be a presidential election, which historically motivates a lot more democratic voters, and Republicans will have to defend seats in traditionally liberal states.

Long story short, McConnell knows Republicans have to play it smart in order to keep their gains from this year in the next midterms.

This is why he immediately said he would like to work with President Obama and that there would be no government shutdowns or debt default threats.

I said that the one person who could spoil all of this would be Obama, by refusing to work with McConnell.

Two weeks later, President Obama has already poisoned the waters with his move to lift deportation threats on millions of illegal immigrants.

Talk about immigration reform has been about whether or not the President has legal authority to do so.

What’s done is done—that is a discussion for another day. More interesting is why he would choose to do it now when there is a delicate chance of cooperation?

President Obama had an opportunity to pass immigration reform his first two years in office when Democrats controlled both the House and Senate.

However, he failed to do anything when he had the perfect chance. His choice to do it now signals that he cares less about immigrants and more about the 2016 election.

Obama knows exactly what McConnell knows. If Republicans refuse to work with the White House and barnstorm D.C. with conservatism, they will pay for it in the 2016 election.

Immigration reform is very popular across the country, but doing it through executive action—without Congress—is not.

Obama is taking the gamble that he can blame Congress for doing nothing and get it done himself, while winning popular opinion.

This move has angered the conservative base—the Ted Cruz crowd, if you will. This anger will make it much harder for them to be mature and work with the White House.

Obama is betting that a confrontational move like immigration reform will maintain the status quo of Congress and the White House acting like children who have taken each other’s toys.

If this happens and McConnell cannot control his base, we just might see the type of conservative battering ram, government shutdown Senate that would likely hurt Republicans in 2016.

But it doesn’t stop at immigration. Obama has doubled down on his policies in the last two weeks, supporting net neutrality and cutting a climate change deal with China.

It is in Democrats’ strategic advantage to poison the political well, which Obama has done.

The question now is to see how well McConnell can keep his party from killing their chances in the 2016 election.

Check. Your move McConnell.

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