UK was ranked, as expected, No. 2 in the coaches and the AP Top 25 poll Thursday. (It’s the highest UK has been ranked since 1995-96, and UK plays six teams currently in the Top 25, and more nuggets of goodness here).
But how much do preseason rankings indicate when compared to where teams end up?
I went back 13 seasons and found where in the preseason polls the national champion originated. Some come from the top of the polls. Some come from out of the polls entirely.
In looking at this graph, the middle blue line is the eventual national champion, with the rest of the preseason Top 25 stacked around it. So, if there’s lots of black bars above the line, the champion came from the bottom of the polls. If there’s lots of black bars below the blue line, the champion came from high in the polls.
Red bars indicate the team was runner-up, and yellow bars indicate the team was in the Final Four.
If the No. 2 team made at least the Final Four, they are labeled with “2:”
As you can see, most teams that made at least the Final Four come from the top of the rankings. In the 13 seasons represented, the eventual national champion was ranked in the top 4 nine times. One instance of a slightly lesser ranking (No. 9 Duke two seasons ago) winning it all exists, and there’s three cases of a team that came from outside the Top 25 taking home a title.
Expanding the parameters a bit, the vast majority of Final Four teams came from the Top 10 (32 out of 52).
Eight times a Final Four team came from outside the Top 25. Eight times the team ranked No. 2 made the Final Four.
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